Closing the Door on "4th&2"

NewYorkTimes.com- Frank Frigo and Chuck Bower, champion backgammon players and developers of the ZEUS computer program, have huddled with N.F.L. executives over the years, including with Bill Belichick. They can simulate hundreds of thousands of N.F.L. outcomes in seconds, and their program is customizable to account for the strengths and weaknesses of the offensive and defensive units of each team.

Frigo criticized a key Belichick decision last November in a loss at Indianapolis.

This morning, a little over a year later, Frigo said Belichick was being unjustly castigated. He sent this analysis via e-mail:

A very interesting and controversial decision with the Patriots last night. I read the Advanced NFL Stats analysis and concur with Brian Burke’s general framing of the problem and his support of Belichick. Here are three ways ZEUS breaks down the problem. In each scenario, an extended simulation is performed beginning with the exact circumstance on 4th-and-2 and finishing at the conclusion of the game.

Scenario 1: The custom case for the specific offensive and defensive features of the Colts and the Patriots.

Going for it: 77.3% (Probability of Winning for the Patriots)
Punting: 75.7%

Scenario 2: The case for two N.F.L. average and equal teams in every offensive and defensive category:

Going for it: 78.6% (Probability of Winning for the Patriots)
Punting: 76.4%

Scenario 3: The break-even point on the decision occurs when the team with the ball is about 5 percent weaker than N.F.L. average on offense and 5 percent better than N.F.L. average on defense, while the opposing team is 5 percent better than N.F.L. average on defense and 5 percent worse than average on offense.

The results of Scenarios #1 and #2 clearly point in favor of Belichick’s decision, although not by nearly as wide a margin as we might have expected. Additionally, the analysis in Scenario #3 really cements the case for “going for it.” Applying this benchmark and comparing it with the far different characteristics of the Patriots and the Colts makes the call all the more clear.

Thumbs up to Belichick on a courageous and correct call last night.

Now can we please put this god-forsaken story to rest? It was one play. He made the call. The pass was completed. And Kevin Faulk fell one inch short. It sucks. It really does. But the Patriots season is not unhinged because of this. The fact is that they lost to a damn-good Colts team, even if they were leading the whole game. It's moments like these that make the Colts-Pats rivalry what it is. But we need to move on folks. Yes this means you ESPN. Do some digging and move on to something else. I trust all of their employees are willing and able journalists. They're holding on to this story like a love-crazed girl hanging on to the final strings of a relationship.