Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Are the Sox Gearing Up for a Sweltering Hot Stove?

Boston.com- So we're talking to Theo Epstein Monday afternoon and he mentions that restructuring Tim Wakefield's deal will save the Sox $1.5 million on the CBT, which is GM-speak for the payroll luxury tax, or collective bargaining tax.

"That's important because there's some things we want to do this winter and we don't have a ton of room under the CBT," Epstein said.

The tax threshold for 2010 will be $170 million. Are the Red Sox actually planning to approach that? They were around $125 million this season.

Keeping in mind that is an extremely rough estimate, I have the Red Sox committed to approximately $109 million for next season. That's figuring arbitration raises for Jonathan Papelbon, Jermey Hermida, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez and $500,000 each for the assorted 0-3 service-time players.

Let's say they sign Jason Bay for $18 million. So now they're at $127 million. Where is that extra $43 million coming from that Theo seemed concerned about?

Are the Red Sox leaving room for Roy Halladay and some other superstar?

This is total conjecture, of course, and perhaps Epstein was just musing out loud. But perhaps that was a clue that the Sox are, if nothing else, giving themselves the option to make a huge splash.

I sure hope so. The Nation saw how the glutinous Yankees won by getting the best available players out there; offering mega contracts to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Texiera. The Nation also saw how the Red Sox front office took the frugal route, make low-risk moves and hoping for maximum results. Epic fail. John Smoltz and Brad Penny realized quickly they were not cut out for the cut-throat AL East.

Christmas may just be coming early for me! I already have made out a wish list of what I want in the off-season. Here's my top 5.

5. Jason Bay, OF- From Red Sox GM Theo Epstein: "If a player reaches free agency, usually the team that overbids, so to speak, for him is the one that lands him. But that's not necessarily the case here, but sure it could be." The Sox retain negotiating exclusivity with the left fielder until Nov. 20. But while Bay has said he wants to stay in Boston and the Sox want to keep him, no deal has been struck. Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman tweeted that the team is expected to offer Bay a four-year deal in the vicinity of $60 million.

4. Matt Holliday, OF- He has said that he wants to play in New York, but Holliday could be a force hitting into the Green Monster. The Cardinals traded for the outfielder before the trade deadline. He was sensational batting behind Albert Pujols, but the Cardinals were swept tin the NLDS by the Dodgers, with his error on a routine fly ball proving costly in the final loss. One thing to be wary of -- other than that his agent is Scott Boras -- is that Holliday batted .286 with 11 HRs and 54 RBI in his 93 games with the Oakland A's last season.

3. John Lackey, SP- If you can't beat 'em ... sign 'em? John Lackey, the Angels' 31-year-old righthander set the tone in Game 1 of Los Angeles' American League Division Series sweep of the Red Sox, earning the win with 7.1 innings of scoreless pitching. He will be a coveted free agent after spending the first eight seasons of his career with the Angels, winning 102 games. While a top-of-the-rotation starter probably isn't a priority for GM Theo Epstein, there is truth in the cliche that you can never have too much pitching, and it is intriguing that Lackey's most similar all-time comparison, according to baseball-reference.com, is Josh Beckett. A less expensive option, Cubs righty Rich Harden.

2. Roy Halladay, SP- I don't care what it takes, I want this guy. He's a throwback pitcher who throws hard, works fast and--most importantly--can go the distance on any given night. Throw in Buchholz. Throw in Bowden. Give them a complimentary 2010 World Series ring, I don't care. Just get this guy to Boston.

1. Felix Hernandez, SP- The Red Sox coveted Mariners righthander Felix Hernandez enough at the trading deadline to offer the farm for him. But while there has been talk that King Felix could be back on the market if he's not signed long-term this off-season.The Red Sox' pursuit at the July 31 trade deadline of Hernandez stands as perhaps the most obvious example of their leave-no-stone-unturned philosophy. The price for King Felix, who went 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA for the Mariners this season, would be staggering in terms of prospects. Given his breathtaking talent and success, the Mariners would have to be overwhelmed to deal the righthander -- or convinced they cannot sign him long-term.

No comments: